Monday, October 5, 2015

RBI Rate Cut, Will Indians Spend Their Festive Bonuses?



The most of the Indian newspapers went gaga on September 30, 2015 over India’s Central Bank –Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cutting the benchmark repurchase rate by 50 basis point to four and half year low of 6.75 per cent?  The Repo rate is the rate at which the RBI lends money to commercial banks. The Times of India, India’s largest circulated daily came out James-Bond style headline quoting the RBI Governor “MY NAME IS RAGHURAM RAJAN AND I DO WHAT I DO”.  Compare this with a business daily which said “Raghuram Rajan Does” while another screamed “Rajan goes for big-bang cut”.  Many others tried to be as dramatic as possible.

So what is the significance of these positive jibes to people at large?   Why so much is made out of RBI’s decision to cut the benchmark repurchase rate? Has the best time (Ache Din) really arrived for India and the country is all poised to leap-frog? Is India going to over-take China not on population but on the business and economy fronts? Is 21 century going to be India’s as made out to be although 15 precious years are already lost?

But all experts seem to send the common message. The year-end  bonus or the corporate gift which most of the Indians are looking forward to in the coming festive season  must now be spent (in case they get one)  on overpriced white goods (even if prices get reduced as a token of gesture to Mr Rajan), new two-wheelers, cars and what not. Better still if they can invest in one of the highly priced mediocre apartments since the borrowing cost has reduced “substantially”.  Never mind if some of these apartments are costlier than in Singapore or in Dubai or quality is the last thing the buyers get.  The customers must take in stride the over-promises the builders make on amenities like water, roads, electricity and connectivity.

The message is be sympathetic to the real estate players who have shown remarkable resilience by "holding on" though inventories piled up in last two or three years.  Indian builders and real estate agents are lucky that RBI has now come to their rescue. As a consequence,  the general people must now be prepared to get smses, emails and social media messages that would urge them to spend their life-time savings for a better life (of builders).  It is really now up to all aspiring citizens, the home seekers in particular, to bail-out industrialists, travel agents, builders and others struggling to sell their products despite all the marketing gimmicks!


All said and done, there is little doubt that the rate-cut is welcome but can help the economy only to an extent and the rest depends on many other factors including the global situation. The real challenge for the common man is not to fall prey to all these exaggerated predictions of boom times ahead.  But will he or she see through the maddening headlines?

Views expressed are personal. 

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